Italy's money supply plunge flashes red warning signals

From The UK Telegraph
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

"Real M1 deposits in Italy have fallen at an annual rate of 7pc over the last six months, faster than during the build-up to the great recession in 2008," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.

Such a dramatic contraction of M1 cash and overnight deposits typically heralds a slump six to 12 months later. Italy's economy is already vulnerable – industrial output fell 0.6pc in May, and the forward looking PMI surveys have dropped below the recession line.

"What is disturbing is that the numbers in the core eurozone have started to deteriorate sharply as well. Central banks normally back-pedal or reverse policy when M1 starts to fall, so it is amazing that the European Central Bank went ahead with a rate rise this month," Mr Ward said....read on