As Jim Willie predicted several years ago the Euro will devolve into a core Euro of Germany and other responsible Nordic states. The PIIGS will be ejected and revert to their former currencies.
From Bloomberg:
The euro area may need to shrink to survive.
As its sovereign-debt crisis nears a third year and rescue efforts fail to stop the rot in financial markets, economists from Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian to Harvard’s Martin Feldstein say ensuring the euro’s existence may require members to leave the 17-nation currency region.
The result would be what El-Erian, Pimco’s Newport Beach, California-based chief executive officer, calls a “smaller, much better integrated, fiscally strong euro zone.” While leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel consistently rule out that option, El-Erian told “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene on Aug. 17 that they eventually may embrace it over the fiscal union required to maintain the status quo.
“We’ve been warned by European policy makers never to underestimate their commitment to economic and monetary union, but that can also be interpreted as perhaps them, in the end, choosing quality over quantity,” said Stephen Jen, managing partner at SLJ Macro Partners LLP, an investment and advisory firm in London. “Political commitments to resolving the crisis cannot be infinite. We can’t have all the chips on the table.”
That the euro’s membership is even in debate is testament to the failure of its leaders to snuff out a debt turmoil that began in Greece in late 2009 before spreading to Portugal and Ireland. It now threatens Italy and Spain and this month has jolted France....read on
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