Wednesday, May 16, 2012

If you are Australian you better sit down before you read this post

This series of charts puts the Greece situation into prospective. As for Australia a Japanese economic collapse is the greatest potential Black Swan we face. Japan is the world's third largest economy and more importantly Australia's second largest trading partner (China is the largest), with more than twice the dollar amount of trade than with our third largest trading partner South Korea (trade stats source)


Original source

By now everyone has seen some iteration the following chart of relative sovereign debt/GDP values, in which Japan is an outlier:

As well as this chart of sovereign interest to revenue, in which Japan is also an outlier:

And certainly this chart showing Japan's straight diagonal line of debt/GDP:

But how many have seen this chart showing global sovereign debt as a percentage of total government revenues? 

Is there now any doubt after seeing this why the proverbial four horseman are really just one giant black swan, only not one of failed bond auctions or something quite as dramatic, but something as simple and mundane as the smallest uptick higher in rates which would blow up the entire global financial farce, starting with the most imbalanced domino of all - the land of the rising sun?... And that at least Greece is not Japan?

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