By Jeff Nielson:
Regular readers will know that I shun short-term charts and "technical analysis". Such tools carry a low degree of reliability, since they are built upon numerous false assumptions (beginning with "free and open markets", and "perfect information"). I submit to readers that markets have never been less "free and open", and information has never been so far from "perfect".
Worse still, almost none of the people who engage in such analysis have any theoretical training in statistics. Lacking such education, they are simply oblivious to how much accuracy is lost with such tools - when we shorten the time-horizon.
Long-term charts, on the other hand are an entirely different matter. The much, much higher level of reliability which is provided by a longer time-horizon is a powerful compensating force versus the margin of error caused from using flawed assumptions. Relying upon superior tools inevitably means greater clarity when analyzing any particular market.
In the case of silver, when we begin looking at longer-term charts, there are a few obvious facts which leap out at viewers, and some which are perhaps not so obvious. To begin with, unlike almost any other market, silver never goes sideways. It is either moving strongly upward, or strongly downward - reflecting the "struggle" between market-rigging bankers looking to keep silver grossly under-valued, and the even more powerful force of supply-and-demand.......read on