Sharp drop for economy, IMF warns

From The Sydney Morning Herald:

The International Monetary Fund has slashed its economic forecasts for Australia, warning of a new global recession that would hit commodity prices and drive millions worldwide into unemployment.

Hours before the fund published its unexpectedly gloomy update in Washington, the Reserve Bank of Australia released a statement expressing concern about the global outlook and opening the way for interest rate cuts should things deteriorate.

The Australian dollar slid to a five-week low of US102¢ over renewed concerns about Europe after Italy lost its A+ credit rating. Australian shares fell 1 per cent.

The fund says Australia will grow at only 1.8 per cent this year, down from its previously forecast 3 per cent. The figure is way below the May budget forecast and only half the most recent Reserve Bank forecast, suggesting it will be harder than expected to reach the promised budget surplus in 2012-13. For 2012 the fund forecasts 3.3 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent.

But it points out that these are best-case forecasts, made on the assumption that almost everything goes right.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/sharp-drop-for-economy-imf-warns-20110920-1kjn6.html#ixzz1YXMMI4BS